The Real Format War Has Yet to Begin
HD DVD is dead, but Blu-ray fans (is there such a thing?) shouldn't pop the corks just yet. The real format war hasn't even started.The HD DVD vs. Blu-ray skirmish serves as a prelude to the real battle: discs vs. hard drives. At some point, an enterprising company will come out with an economically-viable, high-capacity, hard-drive-based device that can output in 1080p. When this happens, the days of disc-based media will be numbered, and that's when the real battle will begin.
Disc-free media is a disruptive technology, and disruptive technologies are the ones that change things. Consider the evidence: the digital revolution began when CDs blew cassettes out of the water and years later, DVD's digital superiority dismantled VHS. In each of these situations, the upside of the new technologies was clear. Consumers understood that an investment in these newfangled discs would lead to a better audio/video experience. And it didn't hurt that these new formats were lighter and thinner.
To me, Blu-ray is SACD with a bigger budget. Sure, it's better than DVD, but it's not disruptive. It's an incremental improvement that hinges on a technology (1080p) most people don't use or understand. But a hard-drive system ... now that's disruptive. No more discs to manage. No more stupid DVD towers to buy. All you need is one simple box.
Congratulations, Blu-ray. You've won the right to be a technological stepping stone.
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